Tibet-Nepal railway can be a breakthrough for India

The Prime Minister of Nepal KP Sharma Oli visited China quite some time around last week. Though the meet didn’t come out as a great power because it was with intention to give his ideological leaning towards Beijing. In fact it came out as the healthy realism and over that Nepal can not afford to loose India by building ties with China.

There were many things discussed in the meeting but among all these countries announced was a decision to extend China’s Tibet railway from the Tibetan city of Shigatse, north of Sikkim and 248 km to the west of Lhasa, to the Nepalese capital Kathmandu. In the first stage, a 564-km line would connect Shigatse to Kerung, 24 km from the China-Nepal border, while the second stage of the project entails developing a 174-km link to Kathmandu, across the Himalayas.

This possibility also gives birth to another that is of the first trans-Himalayan rail link that could go all the way to India. Going back to memories of Prime Minister Narendra Modi had announced in April, when Oli was visiting New Delhi, that India and Nepal would build a railway line connecting Kathmandu with India.

There is a lot to do before this project takes its first base and there are lot of drawbacks as well which need to be over come like Nepal would ideally like outright grants, though neither China nor India would be inclined to agree. A more relevant question is whether a trans-Himalayan railway is economically feasible.

To understand this better, let’s know the Delhi-Kathmandu ties. In 2016, Nepal signed what were billed as “game changer” agreements with China, including a transit and trade memorandum of understanding designed to end Nepal’s dependence on India. Besides road and rail links, Nepal sought to develop new fibre optic links and a petroleum supply agreement with China to bypass India. But this was in anger of four-month-long economic blockade along the Indian border that Kathmandu blamed on New Delhi.

On this opposing India strategy Oli got along with 2017 general elections But bowing to reality, he decided to hit reset in his ties with India and ensured that his first visit abroad in April was to New Delhi. By then, Oli had realized that there was a geographical limit to the extent to which China could help Nepal reduce its dependence on India. This is evident from the fact that even today, Nepal remains totally dependent on India for its internet connections and oil supply. Indeed, during Oli’s India visit, he and Modi inaugurated a 69-km oil pipeline project linking Motihari in Bihar to Amlekhganj in Nepal, which is scheduled to be completed by March 2019.

When Modi announced a new railway line connecting Raxaul in Bihar to Kathmandu. Now here there is a signal considering an earlier Chinese proposal for a rail link from Kerung to Lumbini in Nepal’s Terai region, bordering India.

The signal is that India has been reluctant to directly take up any kind of trilateral cooperation in Nepal with China. Because a compromise of sorts has been arrived that will enable the Indian and Chinese railway systems to meet in Kathmandu. The relationship of India is completely different with Nepal as compared to China hence there can be refusal to support Beijing’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative.

Now coming to Railway linkage, the extensive Indian railway system touches the Nepal border across its length in the south. But north-south linkages are virtually non-existent, as are railroads in the Terai. In recent years, efforts have been made to link the Indian system to the Nepal border at five points.

Following Oli’s visit, India has agreed to carry out “preparatory survey work within one year” and move towards a detailed project report as far as the Kathmandu-Raxaul line is concerned. It has also committed to completing smaller cross-border railway linkages from Jayanagar (Bihar) to Janakpur and from Jogbani (Bihar) to Biratnagar Customs Yard within this year. In addition, work to complete the Jayanagar-Bijalpura-Bardibas and Jogbani-Biratnagar rail links will be given priority.

The second phase of cross-border rail link projectsbhave two sides that will take up connections between New Jalpaiguri in West Bengal and Kakarbhitta in Nepal, Nautanwa in Uttar Pradesh and Bhairawa across the border, and Nepalgunj Road in Uttar Pradesh and Nepalgunj in Nepal. Whether these links are operational is depending on the economic logic of Nepal-India relations rather than on political sights.

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